Topic
5 published pieces on this subject.
research
A self-modifying system needs stronger evidence than a one-off model because every accepted change can alter future decisions. This note outlines a staged evidence ladder for governing those changes.
guide
Overfitting happens when a rule learns the accidents of a historical sample instead of a durable relationship. Several practical tests can expose that fragility before live risk is added.
article
Backtests, paper trading, and live trading answer different questions. Treating them as interchangeable is one of the easiest ways to overstate strategy evidence.
guide
There is no universal magic trade count. The useful question is how much independent evidence you have, how noisy the outcome is, and what decision you are trying to justify.
article
Paper trading is valuable because it tests a running system, but it still leaves important execution, liquidity, and behavioral risks unresolved.