article
What Probability Calibration Means for Trading Models
A model that says 70% should be right about seven times in ten across comparable cases. Calibration asks whether confidence means what the model claims it means.
Topic
risk
4 published pieces on this subject.
article
Win Rate vs. Expectancy: Why More Winning Trades Can Still Lose Money
A high win rate feels reassuring, but the size of wins, size of losses, and trading costs determine whether the process has positive expectancy.
guide
What Drawdown Actually Tells You About a Strategy
Drawdown is more than a scary percentage: depth, duration, recovery, and clustering reveal different kinds of strategy risk.
guide
How to Read a Backtest Without Fooling Yourself
A practical framework for separating a promising historical result from a result that merely looks convincing on a chart.