Topic
3 published pieces on this subject.
research
When models, strategies, and evaluations change over time, an append-only evidence trail helps distinguish genuine prospective learning from a history rewritten after outcomes are known.
guide
Overfitting happens when a rule learns the accidents of a historical sample instead of a durable relationship. Several practical tests can expose that fragility before live risk is added.
guide
A practical framework for separating a promising historical result from a result that merely looks convincing on a chart.