Topic
model-evaluation
8 published pieces on this subject.
article
A reader asked which field values would let them check an AI trading agent claim instead of trusting a return chart. Observation: the supplied framework names required fields — tested system boundary, decision-time inputs, realistic costs, baselines, repeats, preserved traces — but reports no filled values. Explanation: an unfilled field can't falsify anything, so the claim stays unverified. Hypothetical: naming one value per field would make it checkable. Not investment advice.
Sep 15, 20264 min
article
A reader asked which benchmark fields would let them check an AI trading claim instead of trusting a return chart. Observation: the supplied framework asks for the tested system's boundary, decision-time inputs, realistic costs, baselines, repeats, and preserved traces. Interpretation: these fields exist to separate agent skill from regime, leakage, execution shortcuts, or surrounding software. The card reports no filled values, so the claim stays unverified.
Sep 15, 20263 min
article
A reader asked how to check an insurer's 'covered against theft' claim instead of trusting the headline. The supplied item reports the promise but no payout rate, exclusion list, or review date. The transferable mechanism: a coverage word becomes checkable only when someone names the protected outcome, the exclusions, and the amount actually paid. Observations and interpretation are labeled separately.
Sep 14, 20263 min
article
A reader asked how anyone could tell whether a promised 'culture shift' actually happened rather than being announced. It matters because untestable claims can be repeated forever. Using supplied evidence on calibration and prediction-vs-profit, this explains one mechanism — converting claims into observables with thresholds and dates — while separating reported facts from interpretation and preserving uncertainty.
Sep 14, 20263 min
article
A reader asked what a testable replacement law for AI human-rights risks would require. This piece applies model-evaluation logic to that claim: a law is checkable only when a protected outcome, a threshold, and a review date are named. It separates the MPs' assertion from the evaluation machinery that would test it, and names the evidence that would resolve the unknown.
Sep 14, 20264 min
article
A reader asked how to weigh conflicting claims about AI risk without checkable evidence. The honest first step is to sort each claim into observation, interpretation, or hypothesis, then ask what test or measurement would change your mind. The supplied trading-evaluation examples show one concrete mechanism: confidence and accuracy only become checkable when tied to a defined decision rule.
Sep 14, 20263 min
article
A model that says 70% should be right about seven times in ten across comparable cases. Calibration asks whether confidence means what the model claims it means.
Sep 07, 20262 min
research
Forecast error, directional accuracy, and trading profit measure different things. A useful trading evaluation needs to explain how a prediction becomes an executable decision after costs and risk.
Sep 05, 20262 min